by
Derk-Jan Eppink*
His victory in November could be as surprising as the Brexit last month. Brexit and Trump are driven by the same factors: anti-immigration, anti-globalisation and anti-establishment. These social forces don't appear on the radar of pollsters. Nor on the radar of the political elites.
The voters turnout for the Brexit referendum was 71.8%; higher than expected. The UK parliamentary elections of 2015 showed 66%. That means that 2.8 million more voters turned up and chose for Leave; most of them were people which seldom or never vote. Resisting excessive immigration elicited this protest vote. This sentiment was strengthened by UKIP leader Nigel Farage. He was on life-size placards with behind him the flow of refugees to Europe. That the UK has its own border control and immigration policy was obviously irrelevant. The spectre did his work, especially for poorer Britons.
Trump not only predicted Brexit, he is a continuation of the underlying factors in the US. Last year he launched the 'Trump Wall' between Mexico and the US. He was ridiculed by the press and politicians. In the meantime the 'wall' is extremely popular with lower-paid Americans and mentioned in the Republican Party election program. Disadvantaged Americans - white, black and Latino - are experiencing illegal immigration as unfair competition in the labour market.
Trump rallied against free trade agreements, in itself not a very Republican point of view. The Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders went on the same track. Trump criticised NAFTA, the free trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico, as death-blow for American workers. Since NAFTA, launched by President Bill Clinton, a third of the US jobs in manufacturing disappeared. The origin of the American dream is job security. America has less social security than Europe. In the past it was always possible to find a job. That's over now. The employment rate is 62.6%, the lowest since 1977. But millions of people are excluded from statistics and undergo growing impoverishment. These people see Trump as a savior, they believe he will make America 'Great' again.
During Obama's presidency the living conditions of black Americans deteriorated. The number of black Americans dependent of food stamps increased from 7.3 million to 11.6 million. Obama was elected in 2008 as a bearer of 'hope'; a symbol of reconciliation between black and white. Unfortunately the opposite happened.
90% of black victims fall in black to black violence. Look at Chicago, Obama's political base. More than 3,450 people have been killed during his presidency. Almost all black. Obama keeps silent. Since the fatal shooting in Ferguson (2014) the black activists group Black Lives Matter (BLM) protest in American cities; yelling " kill a cop today." Obama invited BLM leaders to the White House. He legitimised BLM, including hate speech. Obama should have said: "All Lives Matter'', there are white cops and black cops. But he didn't.
The shooting of policemen polarises black versus white. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, is bland to BLM: she needs the black vote. Trump is a candidate of "law and order". He makes the election to a referendum "for or against the police".
Voters turnout for presidential elections is relatively low: 50% in 2000, 57% in 2008 and 55% in 2012. There is plenty of chance for 'unexpected voters' , as happened with Brexit. The Republican primaries showed the highest attendance ever. Pollsters were wrong. Hilary Clinton, the figurehead of a tormented establishment; Trump the challenger. The US goes with an angry electorate towards a boiling point on November 8; the rebel seems to have the best chance.
*Derk-Jan Eppink is a senior fellow at the London Policy Center in New York
By: N. Peter Kramer
