The battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

by Hans I. Kriek*

A series of recent surveys show Trump falling short of Clinton nationally and, most importantly, in key electoral states. The most recent CNN Poll of Polls, incorporating the results of six major polls after the conventions, found beginning of August Clinton with an average of 49% support and Trump lacking behind at 39%. When third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the margin remained the same, with both candidates losing the same amount of support: 45% for Clinton to 35% for Trump.

How likely is a Trump victory in November? 

Can Trump still turn the tide? Where he delivers his speeches rooms and stadiums are always packed. Despite the gap with Clinton and his often rude campaigning, we should not underestimate Trump. He is portrayed by most US and European media as an idiot. It is interesting to make a comparison with Ronald Reagan, Republican president between 1981 and 1989 and still very popular among Republicans. However during his first election campaign he was considered by the media as a simple-minded ‘B-actor’, whilst his Democratic opponent Jimmy Carter was seen as substantively much stronger. But Reagan won the election and eventually became one of the most popular US Presidents, who easily won re-election four years later.

Trump has a point when he says that the US economy is in bad shape, and has hardly improved over the past eight years during Obama’s presidency. In some areas, the situation is catastrophic. Look at Detroit. It was once the engine of the US economy and turned into a ghost town. Trump chose it as a place to announce his plans for the US economy. The public sector is in disarray, the country’s infrastructure has been neglected, airports are outdated and in spite of a slowly improving labour market, unemployment is high. 

Problems for Clinton:

The odds for Trump can also grow due to problems in the camp of Clinton. The storm about her private emails when she was Secretary of State in the Obama government is not fading away. The ‘hunger for power’ of the Clinton family is upsetting many voters. The revelations that the Hilary campaigners tried to Democratic Party secretly worked against Sanders and party chose still to Clinton. 

And last but not least The Clinton Foundation. It has accepted tens of millions of dollars from countries that the State Department (before, during and after Hillary’s time as Secretary) criticised for their records on sex discrimination and other human rights issues; including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Brunei and Algeria.  How will she handle the relation with these countries if elected as President…..?

Both candidates are clearly facing a serious image problem. Never before voters had a bigger aversion to both presidential candidates since 1960 according to data of researcher Gallup, the Wall Street Journal published recently.

Anyhow, the White House is not at all out of reach for Donald Trump. Let’s see what happens during the first TV-debate between the two rivals, on September 26. 

* Hans Izaak Kriek is a former Dutch television-journalist and now editor-in-chief of Hans Kriek Media.