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Europe’s future under high uncertainty

This very week, might be proved crucial for European Union’s future

By: EBR - Posted: Thursday, September 15, 2016

It is clear that the acceleration / deepening are the most coherent and complete rapprochement. However, the implementation of that rapprochement demands wider consent which is not easy to happen. But this does not mean that the Union should be let muddling through. A strategy with two stages could be able to overcome the obstacles.
It is clear that the acceleration / deepening are the most coherent and complete rapprochement. However, the implementation of that rapprochement demands wider consent which is not easy to happen. But this does not mean that the Union should be let muddling through. A strategy with two stages could be able to overcome the obstacles.

by Panayotis K. Ioakeimidis

This period starts with two main events: the statement of the President of the European Commission Mr. Jean-Claude Junker regarding the State of the Union, on Wednesday 14th of September and the summit of the 27 EU member-states (without the participation of UK) at 16th of September in Bratislava, where they will try to shape a strategy for the Union’s course/future after Brexit – without, admissibly, great expectations.

At the moment, there are listed three different approaches regarding the future of EU, which correspond to three modules of political powers:

The first approach is about the disintegration of the European Union and the reverse of the European integration process in a total return to the national state. It is openly propagandized by nationalist-populist powers of extremism, especially by the extreme-right. According to these powers, the Brexit decision revealed the reversibility of the unifying process and therefore, the fact that it should be taped as a chance for the last deathblow to the European structure. 

According to that reasoning, far right parties in France, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy etc., support referenda for the countries’ exit from the EU and the acceleration of the EU disintegration process. Of course, it is uncertain if those powers would ever be capable to impose their ideas. Italy might be the only exception, the country which is generally, a real headache for the Union nowadays.

The second approach suggests the pause of the integration process for the foreseeable future. This idea is supported by the majority of the EU conservative parties and Chancellor Angela Merkel included. The principal argument is that the British referendum imposes a long period of meditation before taking any kind of new integrative initiatives. 

Without any doubt, Merkel’s position is dictated by the upcoming electoral battle (September 2017) and the realignments which are recorded about the electorate (rising of the euro-skeptic AfD - Alternative for Germany). But it is also dictated by the negative position of many other conservative powers or states (East European countries, Poland, Hungary etc.) to support initiatives about the enhancing of the European integration. 

The third approach concerns the acceleration / deepening of the European integration. It is promoted by a large number of left / social-democratic political powers, which are headed by the President of the European Parliament Martin Shultz, also the President of the European Commission who is coming from the conservative field and additionally the liberals (Guy Verhofstadt). Those powers are aiming at the exploitation of Brexit decision, as a chance for further promotion of integration, adducing three main arguments in support of this idea: 

a) The problems, crises and challenges that Europe faces nowadays (refugee crisis, development, terrorism, regional instability etc.) could be solved just with “more and better Europe” and not with “less Europe” or the returning to the national state model,

b) Today’s Eurozone is not sustainable. If its integration will not be progressed with a fiscal union, economic union and finally a political union, sooner or later it will collapse,

c) The possible freeze of the integration process will lead de facto to the EU’s depreciation, with member states which would refuse to implement the EU law and policies (as it already happens) and finally to the disintegration.

On that argument basis, there is the estimation that the rise of euro-skepticism is coming from the EU’s disability to solve the regular problems of the European society, because it does not have the required capabilities and policies on this purpose. So, EU should gain them through the integration deepening, which could be a new kind of a European contract.

It is clear that the acceleration / deepening are the most coherent and complete rapprochement. However, the implementation of that rapprochement demands wider consent which is not easy to happen. But this does not mean that the Union should be let muddling through. A strategy with two stages could be able to overcome the obstacles. 

The first direct stage aims to promote a package of unifying initiatives in the framework of the current Treaties, which offer huge still undeveloped margins.
On a second and more ambitious stage, and after the European electoral circle is closed (in France, Germany, Netherlands etc.), an effort could be made for a total revision of the Treaties, in order to achieve finally the political union. However, it is more likely that this plan could not be implemented with the support of all EU members. Thus, promoting integration with flexible, diversified plans (of two-speed / two poles) will be inevitable.

The destiny of Greece is very intertwined with EU’s destiny. A weak European Union means a priori a weak Greece and vise versa. Therefore, Greece should definitely be interested for the European developments. But does the Greek government or anyone else is really concerned about this issue? 
Considering the general trends and behaviors, probably the answer is no.

* Emeritus professor of University of Athens

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