by Sarantis Michalopoulos
Cyprus, which currently holds the EU Presidency, is facing spillover from the Middle East unrest after a British base on the island was recently hit by an Iranian-made drone launched by Hezbollah, while Tehran fired two missiles over the weekend that were intercepted in Israeli airspace.
A senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also warned on Monday of intensified missile strikes on Cyprus – claiming that the United States has significantly expanded its military footprint on the island.
After the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli airstrike on Tehran last week, the Iranian leadership appears disordered – making it difficult to predict with certainty any future targets or timing of further strikes, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis told the Greek press on Monday.
Cyprus’ concerns extend beyond missile threats, with authorities warning of a heightened risk of terrorist activity linked to Iranians residing in the Turkish-occupied north.
More than 10,000 pro‑regime Iranians reside in the territory occupied by Turkey since 1974 – with around 1,000 married to Turkish‑Cypriots, Euractiv has learned. The presence of thousands of Israelis on the island further complicates the security picture.
“The risk of a terrorist attack is high,” a senior Cypriot government official told Euractiv, adding that Nicosia will strengthen security measures along the UN-surveiled Green Line dividing the island between the government-controlled south and the Turkish-occupied north.
Fears of Iranian ‘desperation’
Concerns over potential spillover into EU territory have reached Brussels. At Monday’s Security College, the European Commission decided to maintain “heightened vigilance and close cooperation with Europol” and step up cooperation with Europol on internal security risks.
“If Iranians reach a point of desperation, they may resort to chaotic terrorism – in which independent cells, with no direct contact with Tehran, are instructed to act freely,” a regional intelligence source told Euractiv.
Cyprus is also wary of Hamas – the Iran-backed group based in Gaza. According to the source, Hamas maintains representation structures and student networks in the Turkish-occupied north of the island. Hamas is also supported by Turkey as part of the wider Muslim Brotherhood movements in the region.
Ankara’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood run deep. After former president Mohamed Morsi was ousted in Egypt in 2013, many of his supporters sought refuge in Turkey.
While Ankara has not allowed its territory or airspace to be used by either side in the conflict, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has condemned US-Israeli strikes as a violation of international law.
The Turkish Permanent Delegation to the EU was not available for a comment at the time of publication.
Germany mulls sending frigate
EU countries are stepping up support for Cyprus as tensions rise.
Greece has activated its Unified Defence Doctrine – under which an attack on Cyprus is treated as an attack on Greece – and dispatched two frigates and four F-16 jets.
Athens also plans to deploy a Patriot air defence system to the island of Karpathos, between Crete and Cyprus.
In Greece, government officials stated that the decision to provide Cyprus with military assistance was made in coordination with the United States, and they do not anticipate a reaction from Turkey.
France is reinforcing Cyprus with a frigate and missile defense systems.
“We are also in talks with Germany to send a frigate,” the Cypriot government official told Euractiv – adding that discussions with Italy are also underway.
The deployment of Greek naval and air assets, along with France’s decision to reinforce air defence and naval presence in Cyprus, underlines “the seriousness and growing international dimension of the crisis,” centre-right MEP Loucas Fourlas said.
The Cypriot MEP also called for a coordinated European response. “When European territory is directly affected, the European Union cannot afford fragmented reactions”.
Although Nicosia is seeking assistance from EU member states, it does not currently plan to activate the EU mutual defence clause, according to which if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, “the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all means in their power”.
“If the mutual clause were to be activated at some point, it would allow an EU member state targeted by an armed attack to make their legal and political assessment before triggering it,” European Commission Chief Spokesperson Paula Pinho said on Tuesday.
*Published first on Euractiv.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
