by Vikas Pandey
Putin’s visit to Delhi is coming at a crucial time for Modi and India’s global ambitions.
India-Russia ties go back to the Soviet era and have endured irrespective of the changing geopolitical landscape.
Putin has arguably put more time and energy into this relationship than other Russian leaders before him.
As for Modi, despite coming under intense pressure from Western governments to criticise Russia over its war in Ukraine, he maintained that dialogue was the only way to resolve the conflict.
This was India’s "strategic autonomy" at play – with Modi occupying a particular place in the geopolitical order where he held close ties with Moscow while maintaining his relationship with the West at the same time.
That worked - until Trump returned to the White House. India-US ties have hit an all-time low in recent months as the two countries have failed to resolve the tariff deadlock.
In this context, Putin’s visit assumes more significance for Modi than ever before because it will test India’s geopolitical autonomy. He will be walking the proverbial diplomatic tightrope here.
Modi would want to show Indians at home and in the wider world that he still counts Putin as his ally and hasn’t given into pressure from Trump, whom he has earlier called his "true friend".
But he has also faced pressure from his allies in Europe - just this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a rare joint article in a major newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine.
And so, Modi will have to ensure that the strengthening of India-Russia ties does not overshadow ongoing trade talks with the US and his partnership with Europe.
"For India, the challenge is strategic balance - protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow," said the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think-tank.
Modi’s other priority will be to unlock the potential of bilateral trade between India and Russia.
Analysts have often said that the economic relationship between the two strong allies has underperformed for decades.
Their bilateral trade rose to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, up from just $8.1bn in 2020. This was largely due to India sharply increasing discounted Russian oil purchases. This has skewed the balance heavily in favour of Russia and that is something Modi would want to correct.
With Indian firms already reducing oil purchases from Russia to avoid sanctions from Washington, the two countries will look at other areas to boost trade.
Defence is the easiest pick. India’s defence imports from Russia reduced to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from the peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
This was largely due to India’s attempt to diversify its defence portfolio and boost domestic manufacturing.
But a closer look at these numbers tells a different story. Several Indian defence platforms still rely heavily on Russia. Many of its 29 air force squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 jets.
India’s limited armed conflict with Pakistan in May this year proved the indispensable role of Russian platforms like the S-400 air defence systems in its armed forces but it also showed the vulnerabilities that the country urgently needs to fix.
Reports suggest that India wants to buy the upgraded S-500 systems and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Pakistan’s purchase of the China-made J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighter has not gone unnoticed in Delhi, and it would want to secure a comparable jet as soon as possible.
But Russia is already facing a shortage of critical components due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The deadline to deliver some units of the S-400 have reportedly been delayed to 2026. Modi will seek some guarantees on timelines with Putin.
Modi would also want Russia’s economy to open space for Indian products to fix the massive trade imbalance.
"Consumer-oriented and high-visibility categories remain marginal: smartphones ($75.9m), shrimp ($75.7m), meat ($63m) and garments at just $20.94m underscore India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical churn," GTRI said.
Modi aims to position Indian goods in Russia’s market, especially once the war ends and Moscow is reintegrated into the global economy.
He would seek to lessen trade dependence on oil and defence, aiming for a deal that strengthens ties with Russia while leaving room to deepen relations with the West.
"Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation. A modest outcome will secure oil and defence; an ambitious one will reshape regional economics," GTRI said.
*Published first on BBC.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
