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The United States entered its longest expansion on record (10 years) as of June 2019, and there are increasing questions about whether any reliable indicators can help us forecast the next turning point.Here is a short guide to consider the difficult task of predicting recessions.

The Trick to Predicting Recessions

At the end of 2008, the Queen of the United Kingdom asked a group of academics from the London School of Economics why nobody had predicted the recession that was just beginning to bite

The issue of geographical balance has been relevant since 2004, but only since the Lisbon Treaty do we talk of ‘top jobs’. Before, there was the Commission president, the Parliament president and Javier Solana.Since 2009, there are other top jobs, including a beefed-up High Representative as the vice-president of the European Commission and chair of the Foreign Affairs Council, and a permanent President of the European Council.

Top EU jobs: Is there a ‘cordon sanitaire’ against Central Europeans?

There are speculations that the next European Commission will have three vice-presidents, but none of them is from Central and Eastern Europe

Participants either played anonymously or were informed of the identity of their partner, in which case it was one of their Facebook friends. In addition, they were invited to play either a single game or repeated ones with that partner. To gauge the strength of social ties between a pair of players, the researchers tallied the number of their common friends, shared wall posts and photos in which both were tagged.As expected, the level of trust was highest between partners who knew each other and played repeated games with one another. The second highest level of trust was seen between anonymous players who played repeatedly together. Trust was lowest among anonymous players who partnered only once.

Why Negotiators Should Be on Social Networks

Although social networks can mine people’s data and invade personal privacy, the debate about potentially nefarious aspects of online platforms has not deterred most people from joining them

Ocasio-Cortez and her fellow progressives may not like chafing under Nancy Pelosi’s iron rule in the House, but it seems they don’t realise they now have a choice to make. Do they keep their social media hordes energised and their progressive street cred enhanced by further challenging Pelosi? Or will they simmer down? It’s not clear how the four progressive members or their staffers who were singled out by Pelosi will respond to her verbal spanking. But one lesson they could draw from this is that the House is not a democracy. The speaker isn’t a dictator but with rare exceptions, however everything that happens in the House is directed by her and her lieutenants.

Four women put in jeopardy the Democrat chances to defeat President Trump in 2020

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and four progressive House Democrats led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY), are having a bitter feud. It teaches us a lot about growing splits within the Democratic Party and how Pelosi is using her power to shut down dissent within her party

A significant benefit that will readily materialize is the increase in economic efficiency, which arises from the reduction in transactions costs and the increase in intra-Eurozone trade. This is because currency conversion costs are eliminated and price transparency is established across the Eurozone, which benefit both consumers and producers. In addition, the elimination of the need to hedge against the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in trade relations with other countries within the Eurozone, further reduce transactions costs, boost trade and reinforce efficiency gains.

On a low-competitiveness country joining the Eurozone: Are there lessons from Greece?

Issues of political economy may influence the decisions and path of a low competitiveness country in adopting the euro. These can have a decisive effect on the eventual outcome and largely determine the country’s economic prospects within the Eurozone


Has Europe lost the new biotechnology battle?

By: EBR | Thursday, July 11, 2019

Local Media Must be Strengthened if We Wish to Uphold Press Freedom

By: EBR | Thursday, July 11, 2019

Vaccines are victim of their own success, global health expert says

By: EBR | Thursday, July 11, 2019

Which Healthy Eating Nudges Work Best?

By: EBR | Thursday, July 11, 2019

Will New Democracy undermine the positive momentum in the Western Balkans?

By: EBR | Thursday, July 11, 2019

Greece: A Solid Base for Reform

By: EBR | Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Greece: The Mitsotakis Family Clan is Back in Power

By: EBR | Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Mining companies spending millions to help boost the "green" economy

By: EBR | Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Peace in our time? Not really, but that should be the real aim of EU’s new leaders

By: EBR | Tuesday, July 2, 2019

David Attenborough’s worried about this ocean threat - and it’s not plastic

By: EBR | Friday, June 21, 2019

How tech companies compare at protecting your digital rights

By: EBR | Friday, June 21, 2019

Why socialism is back

By: EBR | Friday, June 21, 2019

NewB or not to be?

By: EBR | Friday, June 14, 2019

Disgruntled Democracies

By: EBR | Monday, June 10, 2019

Acropolis Museum: 10 years

By: EBR | Friday, June 7, 2019

The wealth effect: The middle class and the changing politics of banking crises

By: EBR | Friday, June 7, 2019

Netanyahu’s elections are just a distraction from the real issue confronting Israel

By: EBR | Monday, June 3, 2019

5 ways you can personally fight the climate crisis

By: EBR | Friday, May 31, 2019

Advertising as a major source of human dissatisfaction: Cross-national evidence on one million Europeans

By: EBR | Friday, May 31, 2019

The UN went to one of the world’s richest countries to look at poverty – this is what it found

By: EBR | Friday, May 31, 2019

Can the EU’s democratic revival stave off its looming "apocalypse now"

By: EBR | Tuesday, May 28, 2019

EU Commission buries sneakily climate impact of farming policy report in EP elections result flood

By: N. Peter Kramer | Tuesday, May 28, 2019

An economist explains how to value the internet

By: EBR | Friday, May 24, 2019

Bill Gates: This is what we need to do to tackle climate change

By: EBR | Friday, May 24, 2019

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An open letter to Europe’s leaders

2019 is a critical year for Europe. The rise of populist, nationalistic agendas has called into question the raison d/etre of the European project and core European liberal values


Here’s how a trade war between the US and China could reshape the global order

US-China trade tensions have negatively affected consumers as well as many producers in both countries. The tariffs have reduced trade between the US and China, but the bilateral trade deficit remains broadly unchanged

Editor’s Column

Brits, Boris and Brexit

By: N. Peter Kramer

‘Brussels’ politicians, eurocrats and the unconditionally pro-EU media (almost all) are telling us, time after time, how bad Brexit is for the British people. Much, much worse than for those left behind


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