Can Moldova stay on the road to Europe?

by Martin Banks

 

That was the main message to emerge from a high-level conference in Chisenau, the Moldovan capital, convened to discuss an amended text of the Association Agreement Moldova initialed with the EU in November.

It is not until the end of 2014 that Moldova intends to sign the EU accords but the conference heard there is an "urgent need" to "fully explain" the Agreement to Moldovans, including residents of the breakaway, mainly Russian-speaking Transniestria region which says its major goal is integration into a Russian-led Customs Union.

A referendum on 2 February in another part of Moldova, Gagauzia, resulted in an overwhelming vote in favour of it too joining Russia´s Customs Union. The poll has no legal consequences because Moldovan courts have ruled it illegal but it may revive recent protests against Moldova´s plan to forge closer ties with the EU.

But the roundtable, organised by the Helsinki Civil Assembly of Moldova, with support of the Brussels based NGO, the International Foundation for Better Governance, was told that with public opinion so clearly divided there is a pressing need to spell out the possible consequences of the Agreement.

The event on 4 February gathered local politicians, political experts and analysts, media and academics as well as representatives of the European Commission in Moldova who discussed key elements of the Agreement, such as the judicial system, rule of law, trade relations and the proposed free visa regime.

Keynote speakers included Wicher Slagter, head of political and economic department of the European Commission Delegation in Chisenau, who pointed out that Moldova, despite being the darling of EU officials, has the lowest income per capita of any of the Eastern Partnership countries.

The EU has allocated €526m to Moldova between 2007 and 2013 but its Gross National Income of US 2,250 dollars, despite increasing four-fold since 2002, is only a quarter of that of its western EU neighbour Romania.

 

According to the 2009 Program for International Student Assessment, Moldova remains at the bottom of European rankings in terms of quality of education.

This shows that there is still "much" that Moldova ought to be doing to secure higher rankings in the World Bank’s ease of doing business survey, Slagter said.

Moldova is seen by some as the one remaining "success story" of the EU´s much-trumpeted Eastern Partnership but Slagter believes “it is wrong to say that the Moldovan story in the context of Eastern Partnership is a success."

He added, "The Moldovan business climate remains very poor – taking a mere 83rd position according to the World Bank”.

Association agreements and the ENP programme were designed to create a platform for political and economic modernisation in order to ensure security and stability in partnership countries, including Moldova. However, in the light of the ongoing political turmoil in Ukraine, the project is going through a series of crises.

Another conference panelist, James Wilson, Director of the International Foundation for Better Governance, said, “Unfortunately, there is an international image of Moldova as a country with endemic corruption, and with no respect for property rights. There are divided views on the future course of the country’s development, and we face the prospect of parliamentary elections in the autumn.

"For this reason there is a need to debate together the different options facing the country and to come to a united and inclusive view of the best way forward.”

According to Moldovan political expert Bogdan Zyrdya one major problem for the EU is the ENP’s image, which he said has been "tarnished" due to the "sudden and violent rejection" by Ukraine.

"There is also an issue of the credibility – the programme’s goal is no longer clear and it does not appear to be a partnership, but rather a one-way integration, said Zyrdya, who also raised concerns regarding candidates "having to choose" between the EU´s Eastern Partnership and Russia´s Customs Union.

Comparing the country’s situation to current events in Kyiv, Oleg Noginsky, head of the Association of Suppliers of Customs Union in Ukraine, stressed that few people in Moldova had read the draft EU accord, which incorporates a "deep and comprehensive" free trade agreement.

Noginsky asked, “How can you so blindly support something that you know nothing about?"

Some, such as Moldova's ambassador to the US, Igor Munteanu, insists that closer political and economic ties with the EU will provide "great" benefits to the country's economy and society.

 

Others, such as Moldova´s foreign and EU integration minister Natalia Gherman say that while there is no political consensus regarding its EU aspirations, the majority of Moldovans have supported pro-EU parties in the country´s last elections.

 

But, even so, Noginsky said, "The fact of the matter is that there will be no free entry for Moldovan goods to the European market."

The EU has been urged to deliver on its own promises lifting visa requirements by summer 2014 for Moldovans who hold biometric passports.

But Noginsky said “the visa free regime does not imply the possibility to work in the EU; its purpose is to facilitate touristic and cultural exchanges. This visa-free regime does not even appear in the document so it can´t be guaranteed”.

Another participant, Galina Schelar, Director of Moldova´s Institute of Strategic Research and Reforms, said Chisinau would have to implement over 300 directives in the 3 to 4 years after signing the Agreement and argued that Moldovans should “carefully consider the options and conditions that are being offered to us."

With Russia likely to increase pressure on Moldova in the coming weeks and months, with possible cuts to energy supplies and threats of trade embargoes,some argue the EU should speed up the association process with Chisinau.

But Schelar argues for an opposite approach, saying, "We should pause the process and reconsider things as we risk opening our customs to the EU without being able to openly export our products. There is also the risk of worsening relations with our autonomous regions and Eastern neighbours.”

Fellow Institute member Elena Gorelova agreed, saying that for Moldova "is it vital to keep both export directions as 50% goes to the EU and 50% to CIS countries”.

Throughout the day-long debate, speakers expressed support for "open discussions" with the Moldovan population and leadership and the need to inform citizens of what the agreement entails.

Further comment came from Vasily Ernu, a prominent Romanian writer, who called for the translation into Romanian and Russian of the association agreement.

He asked, “What kind of agreement are we talking about when it has not even been translated into local languages?”

His point was supported by Mark Tkachuk, a Moldovan MP from the Communist Party, which has previously supported EU integration but is increasingly pro-Russian in its stance.

Tkachuk, who supports a possible referendum on the issue, said, “The final translation of the agreement document is not available to the population to read."

Moldova and Georgia emerged from an EU survey as the EU's Eastern neighbours that did most in 2012 to push through reforms agreed with the EU. Moldova's economy grew by more than 5.5 per cent in 2013 and is expected to continue to expand this year.

And while Chisenau is generally seen as the champion of the EU's Eastern association process for now, things could heat up in 2014. A victory for the Communist opposition in November's general election is likely to delay EU integration for Moldova.

The burning question now facing Moldovan citizens is this: irrespective of their nationality, language, faith or race, are they ready to turn their back on Russia and allow their country to cement its ties with the EU?

One things appears clear: a major public diplomacy effort by the EU is needed to sustain support for the association agreement.