by Giles Merritt
Surveys and opinion polls are an almost daily feature of the European scene, so they often spark no more than passing interest. But very occasionally there’s one that illuminates Europe’s need to confront shared dangers collectively. That’s the focus of this article.
In all the hubbub of political debate inside the Brussels ‘bubble’, there’s generally one missing element – people. The lives and difficulties of individuals appear as statistics. The latest “Voices for Choices” report from Friends of Europe’s citizen engagement unit, Debating Europe, instead brings a much-needed flash of colour and humanity to the toxic topic of Europe’s demographic decline.
Questioned about ageing’s impact on them personally, 2,000 young people aged between 18 and 35 years old paint a vivid picture of their fears, as well as their courage in the face of a future they know is less rosy than the world of their parents.
The questions put to them ranged across pensions, housing, healthcare, education and, crucially, the jobs market. The survey was in six countries – France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland and Denmark – and revealed some fairly marginal national differences but a shared anxiety that Europe’s policymakers are doing too little, too late to confront the unavoidable consequences of populations whose ageing will be followed by shrinkage.
“My biggest concern about pensions,” says a young Polish woman, “is that even if I work my whole life I still won’t be able to afford basic things.” Her worry is echoed by an older fellow countryman in his thirties, Kamil, who warns “there will be too few children, and the system will collapse.”
Young Italians are the most pessimistic, fearing for the long-term viability of pensions. Overall, the shared view in all six countries is that pensions are clumsy and inflexible, and should be made fairer by distinguishing between careers that were relatively privileged and those that involved physical hardship.
The young respondents suggest some very practical reforms to ease housing difficulties. These include help for first-time buyers, more flexibility in rental markets and a clampdown on speculators who drive prices upwards. The spectre of homelessness they evoke is paralleled by those who point to childlessness as the price of soaring housing costs.
Surprisingly, because it is a relatively minor concern among this age group, healthcare attracts a good deal of criticism. Jules, a German in his late 20s, says “Here, too, the gap between rich and poor is growing ever-wider.”
Where ‘Debating Europe’s’ respondents turn their collective guns on EU policymakers is in the connection between training and jobs in today’s problematic digital workplace. Not only does education not prepare job seekers adequately, but access to training is seriously unequal.
Their message is that jobs are both poorly paid and insecure. In Spain, Juan who is in his early 30s, says “Salaries are getting worse and worse, everything is increasing in price except salaries, and there are no jobs that pay decent or realistic wages.”
The European Commission has yet to match these dire sentiments in a credible or reassuring way, be it via an ‘action plan’, ‘roadmap’ or any other steps to be taken collectively or by member states working together. Its response of 10 years ago was a report on the ‘silver economy’ that potentially saw Europe’s over-65s contributing €5.7tn in economic activity by 2050.
The more realistic analysis is that a dwindling workforce will by then be only two times larger than the pensioned population – as distinct from 4:1 in the last century – meaning a much-reduced tax base. A Bruegel think tank report warns of severe strain to healthcare, pensions and long-term care systems, and an undermining of competitiveness as well as increased inequality.
Stepping back from the often-heart-rending human quality of Debating Europe’s “Voices for Choices” survey, where should the debate on EU policy responses be headed?
Brussels’ first step could be to abandon its ineffectual efforts of recent years. Studies detailing demographic change have bordered on the complacent by neglecting to spell out its frightening consequences, especially for younger generations who will be liable for the mounting costs of an ageing and largely inactive population.
The EU executive’s excuse has long been that the social and economic impacts of ageing are national. This is true, but it’s a poor argument. The pressures of demographic decline are uneven within member states, and therefore threaten to undo much of the cohesion and unity won over the years, not least since the ‘Big Bang’ enlargement two decades ago.
It is possible for the present Commission – Ursula von der Leyen’s second – to point to the huge distractions of the Ukraine conflict and Donald Trump’s rogue policies. But ageing is a geo-economic tsunami rolling silently towards Europe, created by societal earthquakes over the last 30-40 years. If the voices of Debating Europe’s survey are ignored, it will be at our collective peril.
*Published first on Friends of Europe
By: N. Peter Kramer