The media across Europe are pessimistic about Germany's chances of economic revival and gloomily forecast potential "ungovernability" after the inconclusive result of the elections.
Background:
No clear winner emerged from the German elections on 18 September. It is as yet unclear what sort of a coalition government will take the reins of power.
Issues:
Can Germany's future political leaders revitalise the eurozone's biggest economy?
How will things play out in terms of UK-German and Franco-German relations and how will they play out for Turkey's hopes of joining the EU?
These are just some of the issues covered by the international media in the wake of Germany's elections.
British press
The Guardian writes that "[...] there is a good chance that the near-stalemate will lead to a grand coalition of the two biggest parties - and to stagnation instead of reform".
The Financial Times writes that "Irrespective of its leadership, though, a grand coalition would be a dismal prospect. It would produce the lowest common denominator of policy on the key issue of labour and welfare reform, and be unlikely to reduce radically Germany's high unemployment or dig the country out of its deep deficits."
In a separate article, according to the FT, "Economists said such a [grand] coalition would make it difficult for Europe's largest economy to adopt the structural reforms needed to overcome stagnation and record unemployment.
The confused result is bound to cause consternation in London, which had hoped a solid Merkel majority would give a new push for economic reform in Europe, and in Washington, which had banked on a change of government to help mend the damaged relationship with Berlin."
The Daily Telegraph says that the largest country in Europe had the chance to show an audacious example to a struggling continent but preferred to play safe and push back the deadline for reforms. According to the paper, "With a hung parliament, political uncertainty reigns supreme [...] The result is a severe setback for reform hopes in Germany and beyond," said Bank of America's Holger Schmieding.
The Times says that, for Tony Blair, the relative failure of the CDU-CSU candidate Merkel could mean the loss of an ally in his aim to inject more free market thinking into the European political project.
In a separate article, the paper writes that "Germany's hard-fought general election appeared to end in a virtual dead heat - probably the worst result possible for the country and for the cause of reform [...] The embattled Chancellor put in a relentless final drive to rescue his Social Democrats (SPD) from inevitable defeat and, until the last, exuded brash confidence and a canny political ruthlessness. His effort paid off - but in doing so, he has made Germany ungovernable".
US press
The Wall Street Journal writes that "a grand coalition worries the markets and Germany's business community" and that "Germany appears on its way to replace Japan as the sick man of the global economy".
French-speaking press
The French press fears the ugly consequences for Europe of an "ungovernable" country.
Le Figaro writes "the result is worrying and paves the way for a government lacking the necessary authority to undertake radical reforms". Not only does it fear that "after the vote, Germany may become ungovernable", but that, "European policy, having come to a standstill after the 'No' in the French referendum, may be more paralysed than ever. How, for example, is German diplomacy going to decide between the CDU, which is opposed to Turkey joining the EU, and the SPD, which is in favour?"
La Libre Belgique writes that, "although Blair faces a weakened Franco-German double act, he may however lose the support of Angela Merkel in pushing through his liberal ideas, on issues such as the liberalisation of services".
Yves Mιny, president of the European University Institute of Florence told the Belgian paper that "the Commission is walking on eggshells because there is not enough consensus in Europe. The big countries driving things forward together just aren't there."
German-speaking press
Die Presse writes that, "in the current European leadership tussle Merkel has no clear allies but can only hope for alliances of convenience". According to John Palmer, from the Brussels think tank the European Policy Centre, "the big unknown is whether Germany and France can find a new consensus over economic policy with a stronger leadership in Europe".
"Never in German post-war history has a national election been so clearly a decision for or against economic reforms [...] After Sunday's result, it is very difficult to imagine a reform scenario for Germany," writes Handelsblatt.
According to Deutsche Welle, CEPS economist Daniel Gros says that "there is no alternative anyway to a close Franco-German relationship. It might be less tight, in a certain sense on the surface, as between Schrφder and Chirac, but the new German government will be more or less the same just a bit less decisive."
From the same source Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, writes in an essay that relations with France should remain central to Germany's European policy whatever government comes to power.
"Without close Franco-German cooperation, the EU can achieve very little. But this alliance should be less exclusive and exclusionary than it has been under Schrφder," adds Grant.
In a separate article in Deutsche Welle, Norman Birnbaum, professor emeritus at Georgetown University, says: "The results show that the Germans aren't ready to break away from a social state and that the majority of the Germans want an independent foreign policy." Stephen Szabo, professor of International Relations at John Hopkins University in Washington, D.C., says that "Germany will be very focused on domestic politics in the next 5-10 years. People will be arguing about reform policies and the divisions between east and west. And I assume that Germany will play only a minor role in foreign policy in the next 10 years."
Spanish-speaking press
ABC sees the "unexpected draw" between Merkel and Schrφder as plunging Germany into a serious crisis, adding that a "coalition between the two big German parties would in practice be a paralysed giant unable to take big decisions".
Two major financial papers talk of "uncertainty" in Germany, which Expansion says "it could really do without at the moment" and which Cinco Dias says means that the agenda of much-needed economic reforms is blocked.
Bulgarian press
24 hours writes that Germany faces the Bulgarian variant – long bargaining and trying various unions till composing an efficient cabinet. All kinds of coalitions are possible, although all the party leaders were categorical before the elections that they would not unite with enemies. "We are all surprised that Angel Merkel gained less than the predicted over 40%, the German ambassador to Bulgaria", Harald Kinderman, said. "Whatever government would be composed, it would not change plans for Bulgaria's EU accession", he added.
Polish press
According to Rzeczpospolita, "the most economically powerful country in the EU witnessed the victory of fear, the fear of being forced to tighten its belt".
Gazeta Wyborcza writes that the Germans no longer want Schrφder, who has not managed to direct the country towards growth during his seven years tenure. "But at the same time, at the last minute, they feared a centre-right coalition. Whichever parties form a new government, it will be incoherent, condemned to act without a plan," says the paper, for which "Germany without a strong government is bad news for Europe".
Turkish press
Deutsche Welle reports that the Turkish media were relieved at the failure of conservative challenger Angela Merkel to win a clear mandate in the German elections.
"Even if Merkel comes to power, she will have to deal with pressing internal issues and will not be able to obstruct the start of negotiations on October 3," wrote Soli Ozel, a columnist for the daily Sabah.
Positions:
Commission President Barroso is urging German political leaders to form a stable government as soon as possible as "without a dynamic Germany, Europe cannot turn itself round".
"What I know is that the relations between France and Germany transcend the composition of the governments or political swings, and they will continue," French European Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna told AFP, according to Deutsche Welle. "It's a strong, close relationship," she added. "The Franco-German couple will remain the motor of European construction regardless of the government in place in Berlin or Paris."
According to Deutsche Welle, French Defense Minister Michθle Alliot-Marie said that she could not think why Jacques Chirac and Angela Merkel should not enjoy the same positive relations as those with Schrφder. At the same time, the minister said the results from the German election were a rejection of a neo-liberal social-model in Europe.
According to EurActiv.sk Vladimir Manka, MEP (PES, Slovakia): "The new government will have to face difficult times when solving important problems, mainly of an economic nature. When it comes to the relations towards the EU and Germany's place in the EU, I don't see many differences between the SPD and CDU/CSU)
The vice-president of the Turkish community in Germany, Kenan Kolat, says that the "result of the elections means that there will be no 'priviliged partnership' with Turkey since the conservative-liberal coalition will not happen. Mr Kolat calls on Merkel "to drop the idea and work to a a clear membership perspective for Turkish EU membership".
Latest & next steps:
Step 1: The parties have 30 days to elect a new chancellor, who is proposed – after consultations with the parties - by the German President, Horst Kφhler (until 18 October).
Step 2: If no new chancellor is elected within 30 days, the President will ask the acting chancellor to stay in power until a new chancellor has been elected (Constitution, Article 69)
Step 3: The German President Horst Kφhler proposes a chancellor candidate who needs to be elected by an absolute majority (Article 63).
Step 4: If there is no absolute majority for the proposed chancellor, the parliamentarians have two weeks to elect a chancellor from among their own ranks. Voting continues until a chancellor is selected by absolute majority.
Step 5: If no chancellor is elected by an absolute majority, several chancellor candidates can be put forward for a vote. The one who gets most votes is elected. If he/she receives an absolute majority, he/she is declared chancellor within seven days.
Step 5: If he/she receives the most number of votes, but no absolute majority, the President can decide to dissolve parliament and call for new elections.
By: N. Peter Kramer
