by
Radu Magdin*
If a month ago things seemed much clearer (the best positioned coalition format being PDM+PL+PPEM, i.e. democrats, liberals and populars, with Iurie Leanca as PM, and maybe some discrete PCRM support in Parliament) now things are unclear and the only thing that can push various actors to agree in December/January on a new PM and a new coalition is the threat of snap elections.
The pro-European parties have to agree on a new government the latest end of January in order to avoid elections; polls suggest under 10% support for each of the main pro-European parties, i.e. a political disaster.
Smoke is being sent by various political actors towards local and foreign eyes, each trying to look reasonable and blame other parties for any future failure of governmental talks.
In this context, political surprises appear. One is a recently-outspoken (lame duck for the rest of his mandate) President Timofti view his recent positioning in favour of a PLDM Prime Minister (a technocrat or a political operator supporter by PLDM, with former PM Sturza in the lead).
Other surprise is the political return of Vladimir Plahotniuc, Moldova's strongest man in terms of public perception, who seems to be keen to get the PM seat; his candidacy is polarising:
fans of this option say it may have some foreign support since it's better to have power out in the open instead of having just strong influence in the shadows; critics of this option consider it would be way too much for him to have both the power and the money.
What comes next?
Most probably, a new coalition will gather around the PDM and Plahotniuc, and we will witness a coalition of PDM, PL, PPEM and, possibly, the newly established Social-Democrat Platform for Moldova (gathering 14 reforming MPs breaking from the PCRM, Moldova's communist party).
While a new governmental alliance would be a positive step, key reforms have to be addressed in order to regain economic stability (particularly after the 1 billion dollars bank fraud) and peoples' trust:
Moldovans marched in their thousands in downtown Chisinau several times this year (some are still camped outside Government and Parliament), a sign of popular discontent and lack of trust in the country's political class.
*Radu Magdin is a transnational analyst and consultant, former honorary advisor to the Romanian Prime Minister.
By: N. Peter Kramer
