by
N. Peter Kramer
It rapidly became quite clear that hardly anybody, especially not many of the polls, really expected this result. Even pro-Brexit campaigners looked surprised. EU leaders were struck dumb and, as usual, divided. Every analysis one reads about ‘what happens now’ points in a different direction.
One thing is sure, England will not leave Europe, that is impossible, but most probably it will leave the EU. Not at all the same thing. A comment in the Weekend Financial Times (that strongly supported Remain) ended by saying: ‘Britain is a resilient, resourceful country that has weathered many storms before. Over time, the economy will readjust and Britain will find a new place in the world’. Let’s hope that the Conservatives will take time to process the exit in an orderly way, taking into account the views of those who voted to remain. It is essential to negotiate a durable and mutually beneficial new relationship with the EU.
At the end the EU could be the biggest loser from the British referendum. High percentages of citizens in many of the member states are not positive about the EU. In some of the countries there is a significant anti-EU majority, in Greece of course, but also in France, and more recently in The Netherlands where a majority would also like a referendum. The Czech Republic wants to get rid of the obligation to take the euro as currency. A majority in Poland has the same wish. The result of the Brexit referendum will without any doubt strengthen these sentiments.
Let’s hope that during their summit on June 28 the EU leaders keep cool heads. So far Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk have; some others, among them Jean-Claude Juncker, appear to be more focused on looking for revenge, because the elitist dream is in danger…
