N. Peter Kramer’s Weekly Column
The 30th UN climate summit, in November in Belem, Brazil, is listed as ‘crucial’, but will be probably a measure for nothing.
Ten years ago, at the Paris summit, it was agreed that all countries would put new climate plans for the next ten years on the table in 2025. These should ensure that the already less ambitious Paris goal remains at least within reach.
Fewer than 40 countries submitted their plans, most of them are vague and plans of the countries that really matter, China, US, India, Russia, Indonesia, are not there yet. China emits a third of all greenhouse gases, the US 12 per cent.
The impact of the EU is getting smaller and smaller; the bloc is responsible for 6 percent. It puts a question mark on the new European Commission climate plan; it will never be more than a drop in the ocean, at high costs for the European industry and citizens.
Last week, at the preliminary meeting in Bonn, preparing COP30, there was no American to be seen. It was significant that the American negotiating space was taken over by the Saudis.
They have been notorious obstructionists for many years when the phase-out of oil and gas is discussed. Now the US is staying away, the Saudis feel strengthened in their resistance.
The Brazilian government pointed out that developing countries have the right to develop their fossil reserves. And US President Trump wants more oil and gas pumped up.
Everyone is looking at China now. President Xi said that his country will announce new plans, focused on the entire Chinese economy and on all greenhouse gases. The problem is that China has such a large share of current emissions, we are many years away from a real global effect of Xi’s plans.
