by
N. Peter Kramer
The islands allies are being picked off by mainland China in what Taiwan calls a diplomatic money gam. Sao Tomé and Principe, one of Africa’s smallest states, cut ties with Taiwan in December. Panama, a longstanding partner, has just done the same.
Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation dates from 1971, when the UN switched diplomatic recognition from ROC to PRC. Most UN member states followed. Since then China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and denies it the status of a sovereign state. In the early nineties, there were still 30 countries choosing to recognise Taipei over Beijing. That number is now down to 20, including the Holy See (Vatican).
The competition between the two countries for the affections of small states mostly located in Central America, the Caribbean and the Pacific has been fierce. Alliances have often switched back and forth, because of domestic policies and in response to economic incentives. St Lucia, Gambia, Liberia and Nicaragua are among others who have done so.
It looks like, that how far the mainland goes in trying to win Taiwan’s allies depends on who is in power on the island. From 2000-2008 when with President Chen Shui-bian the independence leaning Democratic Party (DPP) was in charge, Taiwan lost nine friends: Costa Rica, Senegal, Chad, Grenada, Dominica, Macedonia, Vanuatu, Liberia and Malawi.
China stopped pinching Taiwan’s allies during the period 2008-2016, when the more China friendly Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) became president. He developed closer ties between the 2 countries and met his counterpart President Xi Jinping in Singapore in November 2015, an unprecedented happening.
A key part of the better understanding was that both sides accepted the ‘1992 Consensus’: there is one China but what that means is interpreted differently on each side. Remarkable is, that El Salvador tried to switch from recognising Taiwan to China during the period of diplomatic détente under President Ma. China rebuffed it.
But the game has changed after President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP took office in May 2016. She doesn’t accept the ‘1992 Consensus’ and now it looks like Beijing is punishing Taiwan. Taiwanese President Tsai visited El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua in January to bolster her alliances after then President-elect Trump caused outcry in Beijing by accepting a congratulatory phone call from her early December.
Experts expect that after Sao Tomé and Principe in December and Panama this month, soon El Salvador and Nicaragua could turn away from Taipei.
