THE EU AND THE PALESTINIANS AFTER ARAFAT

The death of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) president, Yasser Arafat, though marking the end of an era, will not bring about a significant shift in the European Union' s position regarding Israel and the Middle East peace process

According to the estimations of the Strategic Forecast, the death of PNA president, Yasser Arafat, on Nov. 11 in Paris, marks the end of an era in the leadership of the Palestinian cause. European support for the Palestinians will not waver, however, as the European Union (EU) continues to move away from Israel and toward the Palestinians for a number of reasons.

Although the EU is far from renouncing its ties -diplomatic or economic-with Israel, it slowly has moved away from Israel over the past three years, specifically since the Sept. 11 attacks, as European leaders support the Palestinians' ambition for statehood. One of the key reasons for this shift is European antipathy for Israel. In fact, public reception of Israel within Europe is sinking. In a November 2003 European Commission poll, 59% of Europeans questioned said Israel was a bigger threat to world peace than North Korea, Iran or Afghanistan. A 2004 poll by France' s Liberation newspaper, revealed that 34% of French citizens sympathize with the Palestinians, compared to the just 13% who sympathize with Israelis.

Additionally, the rapid growth of the EU' s Muslim population has made cooperation with Israel both unpopular and politically sensitive. France and Spain, for example, have nearly 10% Muslim populations, compared to 1% Jewish. Most Muslims remain loyal to the Palestinian issue. Of course, it helps little that Osama bin Laden holds it up as a key example of Western persecution.

The EU also supports the Palestinians because Europeans are fond of championing social issues, and the Palestinians are their current cause. The EU is one of the largest providers of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. In 2004 alone, the European Commission has given 2.35 million euros ($3 million) to Palestinians whose homes have been razed by the Israeli army in the country.

Economically, there are no significant reasons for the EU and Israel to step up cooperation. A trade agreement already exists between the two, and the EU accounts for 40% of Israel' s total imports and 30% of its exports. If it wanted to, Israel could buy more weapons from the Europeans, but its needs in that area already are met by the United States, whose arms are cheaper and of better quality. Finally, and simply, the Europeans support the Palestinian cause for geopolitical reasons. The United States is Israel's biggest supporter, both economically and politically. Some EU leaders, notably France, Germany and Spain, would like to counter US influence in the Middle East in any way possible. If that means backing an opposition group, then so be it.

Israel is sensitive to this shifting tide. In fact, an October report from the Israeli Foreign Ministry says Israel could be put "on a collision course with the EU" and says that even in the best-case scenario "there is the potential for friction in Israel-EU relations". Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, also has dismissed EU offers to assist in the Middle East peace process, calling the Europeans "anti-Israeli" and suggesting that Israel would work only with the United States.

The US recently urged Palestinians to look beyond the death of their leader and move toward peace with Israel, promising help to reach their aim of an independent state. President George W. Bush offered "condolences" to the Palestinians, but the US only sent Assistant Secretary of State, William Burns, to Arafat' s funeral in Cairo, reflecting the freeze in relations under the Bush administration.

"The death of Yasser Arafat is a significant moment in Palestinian history", Bush said in a statement released soon after the death of the 75-year-old Arafat was announced. "For the Palestinian people, we hope that the future will bring peace and fulfillment of their aspirations for an independent, democratic Palestine that is at peace with its neighbors. During the period of transition that is ahead, we urge all in the region and throughout the world to join in helping make progress toward these goals and toward the ultimate goal of peace. The vision is two states, a Palestinian state and Israel, living side by side in peace. I think we’ve got a chance to do that. I look forward to being involved in that process", Bush told reporters at the White House, on Nov. 10.