by N. Peter Kramer
Joe Biden will soon be in charge of US foreign policy. An early test will be Iran, and whether he will abandon he strategic gains that President Trump has made in the Middle East and return to the deeply flawed 2015 nuclear deal. The US left the accord in May 2015 and embarked on a ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions campaign. After restoring the pre-deal sanctions, the Trump Administration has added new restrictions across the Iranian economy. The sanctions have succeeded in weakening the rogue regime. Today Teheran’s exports about a quarter of the 2,5 million barrels of oil a day it shipped when the US was still in the deal. The economy has shrunk, the Iranian rial hast lost 80% of its value against the dollar.
Iran has responded by increasing its violations of the nuclear deal. It now has 12 times the limit of enriched uranium allowed under the accord, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. That Iran was able to ramp up its nuclear production so quickly is a reminder of the agreement’s major flaws. The IAEA also said that Iranian explanation was ‘not credible’ after investigators found nuclear material at an undeclared site. The UK, France and Germany said in a statement responding to the IAEA report, ‘we continue to be extremely concerned by Iran’s actions, which are hollowing out the core non-proliferation benefits of the deal’.
Joe Biden’s choice for White House national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said, ‘a Democratic Administration should immediately begin the process of negotiating with Iran a follow-on agreement’. But what kind of an agreement? The original nuclear deal makes it easy for Iran to break out as its provisions sunset over the next decade. Meanwhile, it provided cash for Iran to expand its regional influence and terrorism. After signing the 2015 deal Iran increased its military budget with more than 30% between 2016 and 2018. Its proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen benefited. Trump’s sanctions forced Iran to cut back on that support.
To abandon sanctions again in return for Iran promises would be diplomatic and strategic malpractice. At a minimum, the Biden team can use the sanctions as leverage to close the loopholes in the 2015 accord. That should include no sunset, unlimited inspections of suspect sites, limits on ballistic missiles, and restraints on Iran’s regional imperialism. The Middle East has changed for the better since President Obama. Israel and the Sunni Arab states are normalising relations after decades of conflict, and one reason is their shared worry about Iran. Trump gave both sides assurance that the US is on their side in contrast to Obama’s loud disdain and his strategic embrace of Iran. If Biden rushes back into the nuclear deal, he runs the risk of blowing up that regional progress.
