NATO to be marginalised by the EU

NATO is set to be marginalised by the EU as the primary institution for Europe, says a report compiled by US intelligence experts.

Within a general analysis on world developments over the next 15 years, by CIA thinktank, the National Intelligence Council, the experts posed the question: 'Could Europe become a superpower?'

"The EU, rather than NATO, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role which Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it", said the forecast.

"Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question, in part because its creation could duplicate or displace NATO forces", says the report.

While weak on military force, Europe's strength may be in providing a model of global and regional governance, particularly if they are searching for a "Western" alternative to strong reliance on the United States, the report said.

For example, an EU-China alliance, though still unlikely, is no longer unthinkable.

Ageing Powers
However, the 120-page report also warns that the EU could break down within the next 15 years if no major economic reforms are carried out.

Branding Japan and Europe as the "ageing" powers, the experts predict that ageing populations and shrinking work forces will become a major economic and political challenge for the years to come.

"Either European countries adapt their work forces, reform their social welfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations or they face a period of protracted economic stasis that could threaten the huge successes made in creating a more United Europe", the US report warned.

Splintering Europe
The current welfare state is thought by to be "unsustainable" and the lack of any economic revitalization could lead to the "splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the European Union, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role", the experts said.

A total break from the post-World War II welfare state model may, however, not be necessary, as shown in Sweden's successful example of providing more flexibility for businesses while conserving many worker rights.

US on top
Going under the title, 'Mapping the Global Future', the report concluded that no other state in the world would match the US by 2020.

In general, the emergence of China and India as new global actors will transform the geopolitical landscape of the globe, the report predicts.

The world economy is projected to be about 80 percent larger in 2020 than it was in 2000, and average per capita income to be roughly 50 percent higher

The National Intelligence Council, (NIC) is a centre of strategic thinking within the US Government analysing how world developments could evolve. This is its third longterm report.