by N. Peter Kramer
From 2030 onwards, there will simply be too little production in countries, while there will also be a battle between countries about the gas that is in the market. Shell reports this in its outlook for the gas market.
Europe is struggling with dwindling supplies and the termination of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine. Shell, the world’s largest supplier, is rising its long-term forecast for demand of this gas. It predicts an increase in consumption of about 60 per cent by 2040, a significant increase over previous estimates. Last year’s estimate was for growth of 50 per cent.
The British group that sells gas worldwide expects, based on orders and data, that more fuel will be needed for the growth of mainly Asian economies and industry. “Our forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to achieve both the economic growth and climate goals’, the Shell report says.
The forecast shows that gas demand will reach almost 720 million tonnes per year by 2040, up from 685 million tonnes as a previous estimate.
The US with whom the European Union is fighting a trade war, will play a huge role in global LNG production, according to Shell. By 2030 the US will supply about 180 million tonnes of LNG per year, a third worldwide.
Not Europe but Asia will be the driving force behind the demand for LNG. According to Shell, China is expanding its import capacity and will build gas pipelines from Russia to 150 million people in China. In India gas pipelines for 13 million new gas connections from Russia will be built in five years.
By 2030 more than 170 million tones of additional LNG will come onto the market. In contrast Algeria, Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will reduce their exportation due to their domestic demand. It is clear that by then the flush will be thinner for the European demand.
By: N. Peter Kramer
