Why the Kashmir crisis between India and Pakistan should alarm the EU

by Rajnish Singh

A deadly terrorist attack in the northern Indian region of Kashmir on 22 April left 26 people dead and dozens of tourists injured, after five armed terrorists opened fire at a popular picnic spot. The incident marked one of the most significant escalations in the region in recent years.

In a forceful public address, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed swift retaliation, stating, “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the earth. India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism.”

While Pakistan offered formal condolences, New Delhi quickly blamed its western neighbour, accusing Islamabad of harbouring and supporting the attackers.

The two nuclear-armed states have a fraught relationship since their independence in 1947, fighting three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir. A recent period of calm had sparked cautious optimism, as tourists began to return. But that progress now appears to be unravelling, highlighting a violent insurgency based on terrorism that started in the 1990s.

Amid rising domestic political and media pressure, India announced several retaliatory measures, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. A move Pakistan described as tantamount to a declaration of war. With reports of border skirmishes between the two armies, the risk of further escalation is growing.

Europe has reason to be deeply concerned. A military confrontation between India and Pakistan could spiral into a nuclear crisis with devastating consequences not only for South Asia but for global security. As a vocal proponent of nuclear non-proliferation, the EU cannot afford to be a bystander.

However, India and Pakistan did fight a short war in May-July 1999, primarily in the Kargil district of Kashmir, in high-altitude terrain in conditions where temperatures dropped to as low as -30 degrees. But still, a wider war could lead to the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons.

Cross-border terrorism is another critical issue. The Resistance Front (TRF), which claimed responsibility for the attack, is linked by India to Pakistan-based groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). These groups have global jihadist connections, raising fears of radicalisation and potential spillover into Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the violence, describing it as a “vile terrorist attack,” highlighting the bloc’s broader concerns.

Community tensions within Europe are another factor. Just as the Gaza conflict has fuelled unrest between different communities, heightened tensions in South Asia could strain relations between the Indian and Pakistani communities in Europe, especially if the situation escalates further. Social media is already showing highly charged demonstrations between supporters of the two countries in London.

The economic implications are also significant. India is one of the EU’s largest trading partners, with bilateral goods trade valued at €88 billion in 2022.

Ongoing talks for a Free Trade Agreement could be derailed by conflict. Sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT, where India plays a critical role, would be particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruption.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s reliance on the Indus River system for agriculture makes any restriction of water flow potentially catastrophic. An economic collapse or food insecurity in Pakistan could trigger migration crises, destabilise neighbouring regions, and stretch EU humanitarian aid and asylum systems already under strain.

The timing of the attack, during a high-profile visit by US Vice President JD Vance to India, adds further geopolitical complexity. While the EU is aligned with the US on many strategic fronts, it also seeks to preserve its autonomy and maintain influence in the Indo-Pacific. A broader conflict could draw in China, a close Pakistani ally, thereby polarising the region and limiting Europe’s diplomatic leverage.

The EU has consistently called for de-escalation, echoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ appeal for “maximum restraint.” Yet the bloc may soon be forced to take a more precise position.

India and Pakistan will lobby hard for international support. While India presents itself as a democratic powerhouse and economic partner, Pakistan’s military run state faces scrutiny for its alleged support of terrorist groups, including harbouring Osama bin Laden, and spreading nuclear proliferation, including towards North Korea.

The Kashmir crisis is no distant regional dispute; it is a global flashpoint with direct implications for European security, trade, and diplomacy. As the conflict threatens to escalate into war, the EU must shift from a cautious observer to actively preparing for the broader consequences of instability in South Asia, carefully considering how it can help diplomatically to defuse the situation.