N. Peter Kramer’s Weekly Column
The Europhile camp has won the presidential elections in Romania and (the first round) in Poland. In both cases, the result mainly shows the deep dissatisfaction of the population. In Romania the defeat for Simion came unexpectedly, he predicted that he would win with a big lead . He collected statements of support from radical right-wing peers, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French figurehead Marine le Pen. Nevertheless, Simion’s strong result will have an impact on Romain politics and therefore by extension on the European Union. The result exposed the broad discontent in the country. ‘The tensions in society will continue to simmer for months or years’, the winner, Nicusor Dan, admitted. Probably, at that moment, the fresh elected president was thinking of the Romanian budget slippage under pressure of the European Commission. With more than 8 percent of the GDP, the Romanian deficit is the highest of all 27 member states. It will fuel the already wide existing aversion to the EU considerably.
The same discord was exposed in Poland, where the first round of the presidential elections took place. The pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski won a meagre victory with about 31 percent, whilst his conservative rival Nawrocki was hot on his heels with more than 29 percent, he did it a lot better than in the polls. The two will compete against each other on June 1. The outcome of that second round will determine which direction Poland will take in the coming years. With Trzaskowski as president, Prime Minister Donald Tusk can accelerate its liberal programme. A victory of Nawrocki threatens to throw sand in the engine because he will use his veto power against Tusk’s legislation. This happened already under outgoing president Duda, who like Nawrocki leans towards the former power party PiS. Nawrocki can probably benefit from the votes that went in the first round to the radical right-wing candidate Slawomir. Somebody called these voters the ‘canary in the coal mine’...
