by Rajnish Singh
It was all hugs and handshakes once: from “Howdy Modi!” in Texas to “Namaste Trump!” in Gujarat. The Indian prime minister and the US president flaunted their relationship on the world stage. But the bromance has soured. Tariffs, bruised egos, and diplomatic snubs have turned once-warm partners into rivals — and the EU now has a chance to cash in.
The slide began in June, when Donald Trump bragged that he had “solved” the India–Pakistan conflict, hinting that both nations should nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan obliged. Narendra Modi did not. For a leader who built his image on toughness towards Islamabad, endorsing Trump’s narrative would have looked like surrender. Modi stayed silent — and soon stopped taking Trump’s calls altogether.
The response from Washington was swift and punishing. First, Trump slapped India with 25 per cent tariffs on exports. Then came another 25 per cent for buying Russian oil. The result: a crushing 50 per cent barrier that stunned New Delhi. For many in India, it was a shock — and seen as hypocritical and unfair, since China, a bigger importer of Russian oil, was not hit.
Right-wing Indian media outlets, some of which had openly supported Trump’s re-election, were incandescent with rage. Effigies of Trump were paraded. The man Modi once called “a true friend” was now persona non grata.
Where Washington stumbles, others move quickly. Modi flew to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, where he was photographed side by side with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The images told their own story: India, squeezed by US tariffs, signalling its willingness to deepen ties with Washington’s adversaries.
For Modi, Trump’s erratic policies carry real costs. Hedging with Beijing and Moscow is therefore an option he can no longer ignore.
That does not, however, mean India wants to throw in its lot with them — especially China, with whom it has a continuing border dispute, and which also arms its enemy, Pakistan. Those partnerships are transactional, shaped by competition as much as cooperation. This is where the EU can step in.
EU–India trade talks have dragged on for years, hampered by arguments over tariffs and standards. The Trump–Modi breakup creates a window of opportunity. A limited early deal slashing duties on pharmaceuticals, textiles and auto parts — sectors hammered by US tariffs — would be a quick win. Crucially, Brussels should resist overloading the talks with demands New Delhi views as red lines. Flexibility will deliver faster results.
More than tariffs, Modi resents being pressured. Trump’s Nobel boasting was a case in point. The EU can stand out by treating India as an equal, not a pawn. Joint initiatives in maritime security, climate technology and digital infrastructure would show respect for India’s strategic autonomy — and give the EU a role in the Indo-Pacific that does not rely on US leadership.
In addition, EU member states could partner with Indian firms to develop and manufacture advanced weapons, helping both sides to rearm and reduce reliance on US arms supplies.
With exports under pressure, India needs new markets. The EU can offer credit insurance, investment packages and easier regulatory access for Indian goods. Such steps would not just cushion the blow from Washington; they would link India’s economy more closely to the EU.
Trust, once broken, is hard to restore. Modi’s refusal to take Trump’s calls and his photo-ops with Xi and Putin reflect a deeper unease. Even if tariffs ease, suspicion will remain that Washington could change course at any moment.
This is a real chance for the EU to present itself as consistent, dependable and, above all, predictable — something the US no longer offers. In a world where personality clashes can upend years of diplomacy, the EU can be the partner that keeps its head.
The end of the Trump–Modi bromance is more than a diplomatic spat — it is a strategic opening. China and Russia have moved fast, but their gains will be limited. The task is clear: Brussels has to move quicker than usually. Seize the moment, close the deals, and show India that in the contest of great powers, the EU is not just a spectator but a serious player.
By: N. Peter Kramer
