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Is the world entering a new nuclear arms race?

The latest agreement, New Start, between Russia and the US on limiting nuclear arms expires. The US (3700) and Russia (4300) together have about 8.000 nuclear warheads. China stood around 600 last year, but according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China could have nearly as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia and the US by 2030.

By: N. Peter Kramer - Posted: Wednesday, February 4, 2026

It looks like the world is entering a new nuclear arms race, now with three participants.
It looks like the world is entering a new nuclear arms race, now with three participants.

N. Peter Kramer’s Weekly Column

What is certain is that the nuclear powers have been modernising their arsenals since 2024. After the end of the Cold War, the arsenal was systematically reduced, but the war in Ukraine put an end to that. Although Trump keeps repeating his desire to re-engage with Russia, little has come of it. Putin is not cooperating. Last month Trump said he had accepted the end of New Start.

Putin is talking about new hypersonic nuclear missiles that are impossible to protect against. Trump on the other hand focuses on the construction of the Golden Dome, a missile shield that will fully protect the US from a nuclear attack.

Trump talks also about a broader nuclear arms agreement that also includes China. The Chinese still have far fewer nuclear weapons than the US and Russia, but they are rapidly closing the gap. The likelihood that Xi Jinping will sit down with his colleagues Putin and Trump anytime soon is slim. Last November, Beijing reiterated that the major nuclear powers must first drastically reduce their arsenals.

It looks like the world is entering a new nuclear arms race, now with three participants.

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