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The revolutions have been coming for a long time. The rising in Tunisia, particularly when it proved successful, caused it to spread. As in 1848, 1968 and 1989, similar social and cultural conditions generate similar events and are triggered by the example of one country and then spread more broadly. That has happened in 2011 and is continuing.

Revolution and the Muslim World

By: Stratfor - Strategic Forecasting | Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Muslim world, from North Africa to Iran, has experienced a wave of instability in the last few weeks. No regimes have been overthrown yet, although as of this writing, Libya was teetering on the brink.

Ironically, soaring global energy prices, especially in the futures market, could prove to be a bonanza for the three energy-rich Stans, especially Kazakhstan, in the short term. If energy prices in general, but especially oil prices, soar because of the spreading Middle East unrest, they will certainly benefit from a windfall in revenues.

Will Central Asia Follow Egypt′s Example?

By: The Globalist | Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Will the chain reaction of protests crossing the Middle East now reach Central Asia? Most of the region's nations seem well insulated from the upheaval — but not all of them.

Both the world and the Arab region are changing and, in tandem with these changes, the demand for democracy appears to be returning with renewed vitality. Twenty-two years after the fall of the Berlin wall, seventeen years after the end of the apartheid regime in South Africa, thirteen years after the democratic reform in Indonesia, the democracy wave of 2011 is engulfing the Arab (and Iranian) world.

Arab democracy rising: international lessons

By: EBR | Wednesday, February 16, 2011

The popular revolts in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in the middle east are driven by a profound democratic impulse. This represents both learning and test for international democracy actors, says Vidar Helgesen.

Business history is littered with examples of companies that missed important trends; think digitization and the music industry. Yet this history also shines with examples of companies that spied the forces changing the global business scene and used them to protect or contribute to the bottom line.

Global forces: An introduction

By: McKinsey Quarterly | Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Five crucibles of change will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future. Companies that understand them will stand the best chance of shaping it. “I never think of the future,” Albert Einstein once observed. “It comes soon enough.”

There is perhaps no better way to recap 2010 than to look back at the year′s headlines.

The Top Headlines of 2010

By: The Globalist | Monday, December 27, 2010

From the economic recession to the World Cup in South Africa — and from the fiasco of the Commonwealth Games in India to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident — we present some of the year's most significant economic, political and societal developments.

There is, of course, the question of whether states should hold secrets, which is at the root of the WikiLeaks issue. Assange claims that by revealing these secrets WikiLeaks is doing a service. His ultimate maxim, as he has said on several occasions, is that if money and resources are being spent on keeping something secret, then the reasons must be insidious.

Taking Stock of WikiLeaks

By: Stratfor - Strategic Forecasting | Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into pre-“Cablegate” and post-“Cablegate” eras. That was a bold claim. However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a claim that ought to be carefully considered.

At previous G20 summits, leaders have haggled over whether to include a line in the closing statement singling out China for keeping its currency undervalued, but once again this did not happen.

Outcome of the Seoul G20 summit

By: Reuters | Friday, November 12, 2010

World leaders said they would work to tackle global economic "tensions and vulnerabilities" that have raised fears of currency wars and trade protectionism as they wrapped up a Group of 20 summit in Seoul. Following is a summary of what was decided

Almost all close races in the House broke their way. Centrist "blue-dog" Democrats, many of them in Republican-leaning districts, were obliterated. Even stalwarts such as Ike Skelton, a congressman of 34 years and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and John Spratt, a 28-year veteran who runs the House Budget Committee, were booted out of office.

The Republicans strike back

By: The Economist | Wednesday, November 3, 2010

"TONIGHT," exulted Rand Paul, the Republican candidate for the Senate from Kentucky, "there's a tea-party tidal wave." And so, in almost all respects, it was: the Republicans, fired up by the enthusiasm of tea-party activists, look set to pick up some 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Africa does not need to be rescued and never will be. But we do need the international community to live up to its commitments and honour its promises, whether that be on corruption and stolen assets, on aid, trade or conflict resolution and peacekeeping.

Africa doesn’t need rescuing, just a square deal

By: EBR | Thursday, October 21, 2010

Nobody disputes the charge that Africa’s political leaders are often responsible for the continent’s troubles, says business tycoon Mo Ibrahim. But he argues that Western governments and corporations could do much more to redress the unfair practices that hinder Africa’s economic development.

Against this background, Goldman Sachs is forecasting a marked slow down in quarter-on-quarter growth in Asia excluding Japan and China.

What to do about the West?

By: Reuters | Tuesday, September 14, 2010

As sure as night follows day, a flurry of warnings that the global recovery is faltering is reviving the great debate whether Asia's economy can decouple from the West's.

Taiwan hopes ECFA will smooth the path towards signing free trade agreements with other countries in an effort to ensure that its export-oriented economy is not marginalised.

ECFA: Equal consultation and mutual benefits

By: N. Peter Kramer | Tuesday, August 31, 2010

The end of June mainland China and Taiwan signed a tariff-cutting trade agreement, the so-called Economic-Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that aims to deepen economic ties and ease tensions between the two countries. The deal is a high point in the ‘cross strait’ policy of President Ma.

European purchasing managers′ indexes in the past week showed private sector business activity accelerating in July, surprising economists who had expected a slowdown.

Sweet Europe, sour America?

By: Reuters | Monday, July 26, 2010

Investors are finding themselves with a new kind of balancing act -- one in which they have to juggle with three major regions posing three significantly different circumstances. Europe's bank stress testing, the focus of much of the past week's market focus, is but one ball in the air.

The old model of a bank-dominated financial system that paid depositors a pittance and funneled cheap loans to exporters and manufacturers is past its sell-by date. People would need to save less if they got higher returns on the money they do save.

IMF challenges Asia to change its economic habits

By: Reuters | Tuesday, July 20, 2010

That warm glow and soft purring emanating from South Korea was the International Monetary Fund trying, yet again, to put the Asian financial crisis behind it. The IMF needs Asia on its side. The region will wield more clout at global institutions like the IMF and provide more of their funding.

From a financial view point, it′s unclear whether UfM governments will be willing and able to match EU funding levels to networks up until now. Some south-eastern Mediterranean governments think that the networks should be funded by the Commission and regulated by governments, a proposal which both the Commission and the networks are unlikely to accept.

New as it is, the Mediterranean Union needs an overhaul

By: Europe′s World | Wednesday, July 7, 2010

The painful transition from the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership to the new Union for the Mediterranean isn’t over. Roberto Aliboni outlines the direction it should go and warns the EU to take more of a back seat and let Arab governments decide the UfM’s future.

The Germans have been developing economic relations with Russia since before the Soviet collapse, but the Greek crisis forced them to reconsider their relationship with Russia. If the European Union was becoming a trap in which Germany was going to consistently subsidize the rest of Europe, and a self-contained economy is impossible, then another strategy would be needed.

Germany and Russia Move Closer

By: Stratfor - Strategic Forecasting | Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The Germans do not want to lose the European concept. At the same time, they are trying to redefine it more to their advantage. From the German point of view, bringing Russia into the relationship would help achieve this.

Should governments fail to reassert the integrity of public stewardship, suspicions will emerge that, for all the talk of new beginnings, the perps and new regime are cut from common cloth

The World teeters on the brink of a new age of Rage

By: The Financial Times | Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Far be it for me to make a dicey situation dicier but you can't smell the sulphur in the air right now and not think we might be on the threshold of an age of rage. Historians will tell you there is often a time-lag between the onset of economic disaster and the accumulation of social fury.

Many of the Chinese and Indian firms active on the sub-Saharan continent are relatively sophisticated businesses and often part of larger international group structures already integrated into global value chains.

How China and India Really Operate in Africa

By: The Globalist | Monday, June 14, 2010

Africa seems to be the new hub for foreign investment for the developing economies of China and India. Both countries are investing heavily in businesses in sub-Saharan Africa and are changing the structure of the trade system there.

Obama, who made Mideast diplomacy a major priority, had succeeded in reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations through U.S.-mediated indirect talks. But there has been little or no progress and prospects look even more bleak after the flotilla incident.

Crises rain on Obama

By: Reuters | Wednesday, June 2, 2010

The diplomatic crisis over Israel's raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla added to the pressures facing President Barack Obama, who is already grappling with a catastrophic oil spill and high unemployment at home.

So anytime you doubt that we can work our way through the still-thorny problems of the Balkans — we are not out of the woods yet — anytime you doubt, you think, oh, this Northern Irish thing, it was a special moment in history. It probably can’t be replicated.

Bill Clinton: The End of Politics as a Zero-Sum Game

By: The Globalist | Monday, May 31, 2010

Could it be that one small African country provides the most powerful example for how to end the destructive practice of conducting politics as a game that must end with a winner and a loser? Bill Clinton holds out the example of post-conflict Rwanda as an epic story of hope for a better world.

The political forces which threaten the Koreas are completely different from those that are shaking confidence in the euro zone. But there is one unfortunate similarity. Until a few months ago, the governments, which had responded so powerfully to the financial crisis, were a comfort to markets.

Korea embargo adds to market’s political fear

By: Reuters | Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Investors rarely like wars or rumors of war. But for global markets, the renewed military tension on the Korean peninsula comes at a particularly sensitive time. The threat to this big economy — S. Korea’s GDP is 4 times larger than Greece’s — adds to the impression of a world out of control.

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EU Actually

Ukraine may buy for 6 billion euros Chinese drones with EU money

N. Peter KramerBy: N. Peter Kramer

In his weekly column, N. Peter Kramer writes about the Ukraine buying for 6 billion euros drones in China with EU money. Is it a threat for Taiwan?

Europe

Diplomacy intensifies over Cyprus

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United Nations secretary-general envoy Maria Angela Holguin will be in Brussels on Wednesday for meetings seen as important to European Union preparations for a possible revival of Cyprus reunification talks ahead of an expected visit by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Cyprus next week.

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How Much Pressure Can European CEOs Take?

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