Opposition leader and upgrading F16 jets spark concerns about stability in the Taiwan Strait

Over the past three years however, the tide has turned somewhat. Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou pursued economic ties and transport links with mainland China while putting aside the issue of the island’s political status. Chinese President Hu Jintao has tried to help Mr Ma sell closer relations with China to Taiwanese voters by mentioning unification much less frequently.

The United States plays a key role in cross strait relations. The US is the guarantor of Taiwan’s de facto independence by the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress in 1979 after a switch of diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China. This obliges the US ‘to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character’. On the other hand, the relationship between the US and China, now holding a significant share of US debt, are crucial for America. Probably one reason that the US has bowed to Beijing’s pressure and has turned down Taiwan’s request to purchase 66 new F-16 C/D fighters. Instead it offered to ‘retrofit’ 150 of Taiwan’s F-16 A/B fighters acquired in 1992. In the annual report to Congress on military developments in China, the Pentagon notes that the balance of military capabilities ‘continues to shift in the mainland’s favour’. China is already threatening Taiwan with more than 1000 missiles.

‘In China and the US, who becomes President of Taiwan is probably more important than who is President in France’ wrote David Pilling in the Financial Times. For the moment the relations between Taiwan and the mainland are better than they have ever been. In January President Ma will seek re-election after four years in office. The Kuomintang leader’s main opponent is Ms Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has previous pushed a strong independence line. The last DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, Mr. Ma’s predecessor, was seen as a dangerous ‘splittist’ by Beijing. Ms Tsai has said that she wants moderate and stable relations with Beijing but also promised to slow down economic integration with the mainland to avoid overreliance on China’s economy. It looks like President Ma has a strong public support for his cross-strait policy. A recent survey showed that a vast majority of the population in Taiwan is in favour of normalised and regular discussions between their country and mainland China. Conducted in the first week of September, the survey shows that nearly 78% of the respondents said they were ‘strongly supportive’ or ‘supportive’ of solving the differences between the two countries through normalised discussions.

How important the result of the Taiwanese presidential election is for the US shows a ‘warning’ by the Obama administration that said that a victory by Ms Tsai could raise tensions with China. A senior official told the media that ‘she left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-strait relations’. Washington seems to be grateful to Mr. Ma for the way he handled relations with the mainland during his eight years in office since his predecessor had not allowed any official contact with Beijing.

Beijing is equally focussed on the elections in January but hasn’t commented. Too much support for President Ma could actually encourage the Taiwanese to vote the other way. President Hu Jintao let the unification rhetoric of his predecessor Jiang Zemin slip and chose to support better economic ties to bind Taiwan more closely to the mainland. This has irked some parts of the Communist Party. A Chinese expert on Taiwan policy told the Financial Times ‘…there are voices including within our government that advocate less patience…’. The question is what will happen after the political transition in China over the next years and a new generation of leaders will be in charge. It is hard to give an answer on this question, but some experts are of opinion that at the moment the hardliners are gaining traction.