International concern grows over fall-out from Guinea′s "rigged elections"

by Martin Banks

Last month's poll was the first parliamentary election in over a decade and was supposed to signal a new start for a country the size of the UK with a population of 11m.

However, the rift between Guinea's government and opposition now appears to grown to the point where it appears to be unbridgeable.

The opponents of President Alpha Conde refuse to recognize the validity of the elections held at the end of September.

They speak of "large-scale vote rigging" and demand that the election should be re-run or even declared null and void.

Gregory Mathieu, President of the Brussels based Foundation for Democracy and Governance, agrees with this viewpoint, saying, "After the massive fraud in 2010 (with the complicity of Waymark) to change the actual results of the presidential elections, it seems that a similar fraud has been duplicated for the recent legislative elections with the same partners.”

He added, “If you look at the results, it is clear that the Guinean voters are very disappointed with their president since, despite the huge alleged fraud, he couldn't win a clear majority in the Parliament.

“The opposition is right to claim that they, in fact, have a majority in the country. I would recommend that these elections are re-run and that they be combined with new Presidential elections. Both should take place under the very close monitoring of the international community.”

Many of Guinea's citizens had hoped life would improve for them after the elections.

Although Guinea is a country rich in natural resources, such as bauxite, diamonds and gold, it ranks only 178 out of 187 on the UN Development Index.

Mathieu went on, "In Belgium, where the EU institutions are based, statistics show that the country of origin for most asylum seekers is Guinea. This is a fact. But nobody seems really interested to explore why those people are leaving their country to seek asylum in Europe.

"Will EU leaders only sit up and pay attention when a boat full of Guineans perish in the same way as we recently witnessed, with such tragic consequences, in Lampedusa?"

Little wonder, then, that with talk of vote-rigging still heavy in the air, many observers now say Guinea is at a crossroads.

Saidou Diallo, a Guinean who now lives in the German city of Bonn, asked, "Will Guinea continue to hinder its own progress towards democratic governance, possibly descending into violence, or will the politicians pull together to find a solution?"

The country was governed by an authoritarian regime until 2003. Coups followed and there were violent attacks by security forces against members of the opposition.

The post-election question now is whether a political solution can be found that is acceptable to both sides.

Diallo said, "I hope the protagonists will have the political maturity to return to the negotiating table."

However, he fears the opposition could implement its threat to mobilise supporters to take the conflict on to the streets.

The comments from Mathieu and Diallo come in the wake of the 28 September election which resulted in Guinea's main opposition parties accusing the ruling party of massive fraud.

In the election, Alpha Conde's ruling party won 53 seats but fell short of an absolute majority in parliament.

The election, which was meant to complete the return to civilian rule but was more than two years late, had been dogged by wrangling between parties, triggered deadly street protests and dented investor confidence in the iron and bauxite-rich state.

The election was overseen by observers from the Union Nations (UN), the European Union (EU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The EU observers pointed to flaws, including the use of outdated voter rolls, in the organisation of the election.

Christian Preda, head of the EU observers mission, said, "The four-day delay (in announcing the result) only allowed corrective measures announced by the CENI to be implemented very partially and too late."

"Despite important organisational shortcomings in the electoral process, Guineans calmly expressed their will to bring the transition to a close."

However, he added, "The publication of the results bureau by bureau on CENI's website would reinforce the credibility of the process."

Observers have said they are worried any renewed dispute about the results could reignite the street violence which killed dozens of people in the run-up to the vote. About 50 people were killed in demonstrations over election preparations earlier this year.

Tomas Caprioglio, deputy head of the EU mission, said that "breaches and irregularities were observed in a certain number of constituencies, preventing a significant number of votes from being taken into account".

He added, "The election commission has only published 30 percent of the votes cast. People exercised their right to vote. A solution must now be found to take account of the votes of all who participated."

The political uncertainty has hit investment in Guinea's key mining sector after Alpha Conde started to attack all mining groups which were present in Guinea before the start of his mandate.

It has large reserves of iron ore, gold and diamonds and is the world's largest exporter of bauxite, the raw material for manufacturing aluminum. But everything has been effectively blocked for three years, meaning that not a single kilo of iron has been exported out of Guinea since Conde arrived on the scene.

Further comment came from Vincent Foucher, West Africa expert with the International Crisis Group, who said, "I don't think anyone thought these elections would be free of problems. It should be remembered what a long road Guinea has travelled to hold these elections in the first place."

But that is not enough to satisfy Aboubacar Sylla, a spokesman for the umbrella of opposition groups, who confirmed, "What we saw is a complete farce brought about by massive fraud organised by the ruling party.

"We have decided to file a complaint (at the Supreme Court), with all the necessary proof, calling for the complete annulment of the vote."

The coalition includes Cellou Dalein Diallo's UFDG, which came second in the election with 37 seats, Sidya Toure's UFR, which won 10 seats and two other minor parties that secured a pair of seats each.

Conde's camp has already said it will challenge in the Supreme Court the results from some districts where it says the opposition rigged the outcome.

Despite the reservations of the EU mission, diplomats, led by the United Nations, have sought to restore confidence in the process and, in particular, the election commission, which is deeply divided.

Conde's RPG party needs the backing of another four seats in parliament to secure a majority so a protracted period of deal-making is expected, if and when the results are finally confirmed.

While an important last step in the tortuous return to civilian rule following a 2009, last month's vote is also seen by many politicians in Guinea as warm-up for the presidential election in 2015, when Conde's first five-year term comes to an end.

All this comes in the wake of a recent important landmark with Guinea celebrating its independence from France, their colonial master, on 2 October.

One of the poorest countries in the region, the crunch question now is whether, over five decades after it won independence, Guinea really is ready to complete the transition from military rule.

Despite the seemingly gloomy outlook, Mathieu offers a possible solution to the current impase, saying, "Our Foundation is ready to organize a conference in Brussels to bring around the table all the actors involved (politicians, businesses, civil society) and to draft from this a clear line for a peaceful and prosperous future for Guinea."

His message is, “We are ready for it but we need to be sure that everybody would come in a spirit of transparency and with a vision for the future."