by
N. Peter Kramer
In December Donald Trump, then still President-elect, had taken a congratulatory call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Mr Trump later tweeted that he had spoken to the President of Taiwan. The goose was cooked! No American President or President-elect has talked to a Taiwanese President since 1979, when the United Nations its member (since 1949) Taiwan exchanged for the People’s Republic of China.
This ‘violation of diplomatic rules’ has been portrayed as a bone-headed provocation of Beijing. But Mr Trump’s reaction showed a down-to-earth line of thought. Why wasn’t it allowed to listen to the congratulations from the President of a country that buys for billions of dollars fighters, missiles and other sophisticated military equipment in the US (with permission of the US Congress).
Taiwan and the world have changed since 1979. Taiwan, with only 23 million inhabitants, has become a prosperous and democratic polity integrated in the world economy. Its economy is the 5th largest in Asia, the 22nd largest in the world and is a full member of the Word Trade Organisation. Taiwan has developed its own democratic tradition rules right under China’s nose.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory, though the island has governed itself since 1949. China demands that other countries adhere to a ‘one China’ policy, having diplomatic relations with Beijing or with Taipei, but not both. The world, with some small exceptions, chooses of course for Beijing. The island is shut out of membership in international organisations like the United Nations and its satellites as UNESCO, ICAO, World Health Organisation.
The US is obligated to assist the self-governing island in defending itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act; and every US Administration since has sold for billions of dollars weapons to Taiwan. President Clinton sent a US carrier through the Taiwan Strait when China was very threatening. President Trump has to be careful not to encourage his Taiwanese colleague who has advocated for independence in the past, to make the mistake some of her predecessors (not the last one!) made to push for a formal declaration of independence.
On the other side Mr. Trump shouldn’t concede Beijing’s power to intimidate the word’s democracies into isolating Taiwan. President Obama had no success convincing China to rein in North Korea; Chinese officials walked over him since his first visit in 2009. Trump’s tougher stance may prove to be a better opening for the deal-making to come.
