by N. Peter Kramer
More troubles for President Biden. Whilst the tensions rise over Ukraine and US/NATO are warning Russia, China made it clear that the US and China could end up in a war over Taiwan. In an interview with NPR (National Public Radio), Ambassador Qin Gang said: ‘If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States in a military conflict’.
Beijing has often reprimanded the US over its stance on Taiwan, a self-governed country over which China claims sovereignty, but Chinese officials rarely talk directly about war. Since the US switched diplomatic connections from Taiwan to China in 1979, it has maintained a ‘one China’ policy under which it recognises Beijing as the sole seat of government in China. Last November, President Xi Jinping told President Biden, in a virtual meeting, that advocating for Taiwanese independence was ‘playing with fire’.
Ambassador Qin said the Biden administration was hollowing out the ‘one China’ policy and ‘playing the Taiwan card to contain China’. Washington has loosened restrictions on American officials meeting their Taiwanese counterpart and offered strong support for Taiwan as it come under increasing pressure from China. Experts said that Ambassador Qin’s comments were not inconsistent at all with those of other Chinese officials who are signalling their displeasure with the trajectory of US-Taiwan relations and Taiwan’s policies.
The US has a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ under which it does not say if it would defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. The policy is designed to both warn Taiwanese officials against declaring independence, which would almost certainly trigger a Chinese attack, and to make Beijing think twice about any military action.
In the meantime the Chinese navy has established a constant presence between southern Japan and eastern Taiwan for the first time, underscoring the rising military pressure on the island. Last week, China flew 39 fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ), as part of an escalating campaign to pressure the government in Taipei and to train for possible future military action.
By its timing, China has put the White House and the Pentagon in a rather awkward position. Serious military problems with China and Russia at the same time do not bode well for Joe Biden…
