by Jakob Ploteny
A little more than a year ago, it seemed all but certain that Austria was going to be the next European country to fall into the hands of the far-right.
After the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) had placed first for the first time in history in Austria’s legislative elections in September 2024, everyone expected Herbert Kickl, the party’s controversial leader, to become the new chancellor.
The Alpine nation looked poised to become the next domino to fall in the Central European bloc of countries led by eurosceptic, Russia-friendly governments, alongside Hungary, Slovakia, and now Czechia. For Brussels, losing Austria (still the largest economy in the former Habsburg lands) to his camp would have been a major headache.
Yet in an unexpected turn of events, Kickl’s coalition talks with the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) failed. Instead of its first far-right led national government, Austria ended up with another centrist coalition, consisting of the ÖVP, the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal NEOS.
The relief felt by large sections of the political establishment was palpable. The FPÖ, historically linked to Austria’s Nazi past, had been the junior coalition partner in previous governments, but having their leader as chancellor would have been a watershed moment in Austrian politics.
Nevertheless, the last-minute escape from disaster sent a clear message to the country’s centrist establishment: you won’t get a lucky break like this again.
The long game
The message has since become a lot louder.
In a political climate shaped by high inflation, regular reports of company closures and mass layoffs as well as government spending cuts, the FPÖ continues to dominate the opinion polls, with around 35-37% of Austrians saying they would vote for the party – a considerable increase from the 28.8% they won in the last elections.
That level of support is well beyond the reach of the ÖVP and SPÖ, Austria’s two historically dominant parties, which could only surpass the FPÖ’s popularity if they merged into one. Recent polls put the ÖVP at 21% and the SPÖ at just 18%.
To thwart the FPÖ’s steady rise, the government tries to play the long game.
In his parliamentary speech announcing widespread government spending cuts, Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer, a Social Democrat, did not try to sugarcoat the situation.
“Without a doubt, a few tough years are ahead of us,” he said.
Chancellor Christian Stocker has taken a glass-half-full approach, promising his compatriots that their economic situation was on the cusp of improving.
Stocker, of the centre-right ÖVP, proclaimed in January that “2026 will be the year of Austria’s rebound”, citing a forecast of 0.5% economic growth in 2025 after two years of recession – Austria’s longest downturn since the Second World War.
Dull but Dependable
Another pillar of the government’s communications strategy is to try to turn its biggest weaknesses – a dearth of charismatic leaders – into a virtue.
Aside from Beate Meinl-Reisinger, Austria’s telegenic foreign minister and leader of the NEOS, the smallest coaltion partner, the three-way alliance has no real stars.
Stocker, a small town lawyer who was thrust into the role of chancellor after his predecessor resigned in the wake of the ÖVP’s disappointing election results, was always more of a behind-the-scenes party functionary than a front man.
While Vice Chancellor Andreas Babler, leader of the Social Democrats, was popular as mayor of his hometown Traiskirchen – a town of 19,000 – he has struggled on the national stage and faces recurring speculation about internal party pressure to replace him.
Christian Kern, Austria’s Social Democratic chancellor from 2016 to 2017, was widely expected to challenge Babler for the SPÖ leadership at the upcoming party conference until finally announcing that he wouldn’t run for the position last week. Babler now faces no competition, but internal criticism is unlikely to wind down.
What the coaliton lacks in charismatic leaders, it tries to make up through projecting unity and competence.
So far, they have steered clear of any real scandals, promoting an image of boring but effective pragmatism in order to set themselves apart from previous, often drama-plagued governments. The 2019 Ibiza affair as well as the uncovering of widespread corruption surrounding former chancellor and political posterboy Sebastian Kurz contributed to a sense of political disillusionment.
The Return of the Prodigal Son-in-Law?
As the polls show, however, voters are not buying it. The longer they predict disappointing results for the ruling parties, the more likely it is that the facade of the boring but hard-working government will crumble.
In 2027, two Austrian states – Tyrol and Upper Austria – will hold their next elections and votes there are typically influenced by national political trends. If public sentiment toward the government doesn’t improve significantly by then, the ruling parties could face serious internal turmoil.
This could open the door again for a familiar face: Kurz, the nation’s prodigal ‘son-in-law’. Though Kurz left politics for the the private sector, he continues to carefully cultivate his public image, feeding media speculation that he is planning a comeback.
For now, a Kurz redux remains a longshot. Following the implosion of his last chancellorship, the ÖVP’s old guard is wary of handing him the reins again. What’s more, the authorities continue to investigate allegations of corruption in his government.
The next national elections are scheduled for autumn 2029, though the remaining time for the government to deliver on their promises might even be shorter. As the Freedom Party widens its polling lead and the government bets on economic recovery, the establishment is unlikely to get a second reprieve.
*Publsihed first on Euractiv.com
By: N. Peter Kramer