N. Peter Kramer’s Weekly Column
In anticipation of Trump, NATO can Ukraine only promise some more weapons at a crucial moment in the war with Russia. It cannot make commitments to Ukraine on how the military alliance can protect the country by providing the Ukrainians with crucial security guarantees. The fresh NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said: ‘Ukraine needs military support at the moment and less discussions about what a peace process can look like’. In a certain way he is right. Militarily the Ukrainians are not in a good shape. The front line is shifting more and more to the west.
The military support Rutte is talking about is not drying up for the time being. After Germany (650 million euros), the US has announced a new package worth 725 million dollars. But Ukraine continues to insist on long-term security guarantees and for Kiev there is only one real option: NATO membership. That was the message Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha brought to Brussels this week, where his NATO colleagues gathered to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
It is clear that the military alliance cannot and will not go that far at the moment, it must wait for Donald Trump’s inauguration. The president-elect holds the fate of Ukraine in his hands. He wants to make a deal with President Vladimir Putin but no one knows exactly what that deal will look like. Rutte spoke with Trump at Mar-a-Lago but he didn’t want to tell exactly what he discussed there. Very clear is anyhow, NATO countries will have to step up their defence budgets.
