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Europe is still a long way from being able to truly claim strategic autonomy, both because it lacks the physical means to do so, and because many of its leaders still lack the political will to fully lean into the concept. Europeans bear a sizeable part of the responsibility for having refused to see the reality of what the United States has been turning into over the past decade.

Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States

European leaders have now not only lost faith in Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency, but also in America’s hegemony as a whole. But short-term challenges make an immediate divorce unwise.

Over recent months the Prime Minister has taken an increasingly strident stance on Brexit in an apparent attempt to appeal to Labour MPs and members.

Starmer to lobby Macron for closer EU ties

By: The Telegraph | Monday, May 4, 2026

PM to use summit to gain access to £52bn of weapons contracts in exchange for helping cover interest on Ukraine loan scheme

The Iran shock is accelerating a reordering with a redistribution of hydrocarbon rents. The diffusion of EV’s is being forced via through price pain at the gas station. Trade and currency blocs may also be hardening.

Ten Inconvenient Truths About the Energy Implications of the Iran Crisis

By: The Globalist | Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Yes, the Iran crisis is a matter of global security. But it is also an event redistributing market shares in a declining hydrocarbon system.

The EU’s ambivalence on Turkey is a long-standing theme. For a long time, the main intellectual cleavage was about the country’s eventual union membership. Despite being a candidate country and having started formal accession negotiations in 2005, the prospect of Turkish membership remained a controversial issue.

The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad Geopolitics

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Following Ursula von der Leyen’s gaffe equating Turkey to Russia and China, relations with Ankara risk deteriorating even further. Without better, more consistent diplomatic messaging, how can the EU pretend to be a geopolitical power?

The case for a more muscular posture in Lebanon is self-evident. This would neither be a mandate against Israel nor against the Shia Lebanese. It would be a mandate in favor of international law, and in support of an imperfect and flawed democracy that, in the region, most embodies European values of plurality, liberty, and freedom of speech.

France, Italy, and Spain Should Use Force in Lebanon

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Europe has been standing by while its Southern neighborhood is being redrawn by force. To establish a path to peace between Israel and Lebanon, it’s time for Europeans to get involved with hard power.

The reforms strategy stems from hard-hitting analyses by two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, of the EU Single Market’s fragmented nature 35 years after its ‘completion’ in 1992. Both have repeatedly voiced concerns that progress is far too slow.

The oh-so-slow Draghi/Letta plan to ’save Europe’

By: Giles Merritt | Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Giles Merritt looks back at the fate of earlier Single Market initiatives, and complains of déjà vu and lessons unlearned.

AI accelerates the targeting cycle to a tempo at which meaningful human oversight is too often procedurally present but substantively empty. Meaningful judgment would mean reviewing target identification, assessing proportionality, and deciding whether to strike. Now, the human remains present—but without real time to contest the machine.

The Fog of AI War

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Thursday, April 16, 2026

In Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, AI warfare has come to dominate, with barely any oversight or accountability. Europe must lead the charge on the responsible use of new military technologies.

Candidate countries can and should be involved in Europe’s ongoing rearmament and force-modernization drive. These three NATO members have committed to scale up core defense spending from around 2 percent to 3.5 percent of their GDP, a target they could reach by the mid-2030s. They have signed security partnerships with the EU, paving the way for participation in union-wide schemes such as the European defense industry program.

How to Join the EU in Three Easy Steps

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.

Some analysts argue that, just as parts of the far right mobilise identity politics to appeal to specific constituencies, segments of the left may be seeking to consolidate support among Muslim voters. Critics warn these risks oversimplifying complex issues and deepening divisions.

Antisemitism in Europe Rises After 7 October: Far Left and Greens Under Scrutiny

By: Rajnish Singh | Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Antisemitism is increasing sharply across Europe since the Hamas attacks, the war in Gaza, and the Iranian conflict, with rhetoric from parts of the far left and the Greens increasingly blamed for deepening divisions.

Nowadays, Cyprus is a member of the EU but not of NATO, due to Turkish occupation of the north of the island. The recent Hezbollah drone attack against Cyprus-based UK sovereign military bases resurfaced discussions on the matter.

Cyprus wants British sovereign bases deal modelled on return of Chagos Islands

By: Euractiv | Tuesday, April 7, 2026

‘We are calling for a reassessment of the relationship and a renegotiation of the status on the terms of 2026,’ said lawmaker Chrisis Pantelides

With Macron constitutionally unable to run for a third term of office, the alliance of center parties—Renaissance, Horizon, Modem—struggled to impose themes or a narrative ahead of the election. The president has also gone out of his way to block the emergence of a successor figure who might solidify his legacy once his term expires. The void is glaring.

Is France Shifting Rightward?

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Tuesday, March 31, 2026

The far right failed to win big in France’s municipal elections. But that’s not good news for the country’s left wing, which remained disunited while the broader right consolidated its momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential race.

In general, the elections have confirmed the growing strength of the far left in the peripheries of big cities, where there are concentrations of the immigrant working class as well as the so-called "intellectual proletariat".

France’s Socialists hold on to power in major cities in election boost for mainstream

By: BBC News | Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Socialists and allies held on to power in France’s big four cities - Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille - on a local election night that offered hopes for mainstream parties in next year’s presidential elections.

For decades, Russia was the obvious destination for Central Asian workers seeking employment abroad. Salaries there were sometimes up to five times higher than those available in their home countries, whose economies remain poorly diversified and offer limited opportunities for young people.

Central Asian migrants increasingly look to Europe as Russia loses appeal

By: Euractiv | Monday, March 23, 2026

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russia is no longer widely seen as an economic “El Dorado”

Explaining the digital euro to public opinion is complicated by the fact that it comes in two versions – retail and wholesale. When and if a recent EU summit’s green light is confirmed by the European Parliament, this autumn should see the advent of the wholesale digital-euro for financial institutions. The retail version for general use isn’t expected for at least three years.

To succeed, the digital euro needs megaphone messaging

By: Friends of Europe | Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Giles Merritt looks at the undoubted benefits of the digital euro, and warns that greater public awareness will be vital to its introduction.

Britain’s electoral system is justified by the claim that only single‑party rule can deliver clarity and accountability. Coalition politics is caricatured as weakness, shared power as chaos, bargaining as betrayal.

Rethinking British Democracy

By: The Globalist | Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Britain’s voting system encourages the belief that complex social conflicts can be settled not by compromise, but by conquest.

Cyprus’ concerns extend beyond missile threats, with authorities warning of a heightened risk of terrorist activity linked to Iranians residing in the Turkish-occupied north.

Cyprus fears ‘chaotic’ terrorism from Turkey-occupied territory as EU help ramps up

By: Euractiv | Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Cyprus is on high alert over potential terrorist threats linked to Iranians in the Turkish-occupied north, while Germany is weighing the deployment of a frigate to shield the island from Hezbollah- and Iran-related risks

Unlike Kyiv, Bucharest operates without existential pressure. Unlike Warsaw, it is less politically polarised. Unlike certain Western capitals, it suffers no strategic fatigue on enlargement or Eastern policy even as it would turn it into a net European taxpayer.

Why Bucharest Is Emerging as the World’s New Strategic Listening Post

By: Radu Magdin | Tuesday, March 3, 2026

There is an uncomfortable truth some Western European capitals are slow to admit: the best political and geopolitical intelligence about Europe’s most volatile (and most opportunity-rich) frontiers no longer flows primarily through London, Paris, or Berlin.

The European Commission should appoint a senior Syria coordinator, tasked with aligning fragmented responses across EU development funds, diplomatic services, and the European Investment Bank. A dedicated Syria reconstruction working group with mandatory member state participation would prevent contradictory policies that undermine credibility.

Can EU Still Matter in Syria?

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.

Likeminded, capable, and willing member states can move forward on supercharging the EU’s economic firepower by deepening the single market, completing the capital markets union and banking union, and consolidating industry. The formation of specialized subgroups within the whole should no longer be seen as a negative to avoid, but rather as a necessary flexibility without which the European project cannot survive.

To Survive, the EU Must Split

By: Carnegie - Strategic Europe | Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Leaning into a multispeed Europe that includes the UK is the way Europeans don’t get relegated to suffering what they must, while the mighty United States and China do what they want.

It’s clear, meanwhile, that the idea of a hugely powerful BRICS bloc is a non-starter. Russia’s inclusion is only part of the problem; above all, there’s the challenge of finding common economic interests between Brazil, India, China and South Africa. The only real binding agent is shared political opposition to US or EU initiatives.

The EU must take the lead in a ’new world order’ of trade blocs

By: Giles Merritt | Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Giles Merritt looks at the EU’s leadership opportunities in a world to be transformed by massive demographic convulsions.

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